Hilton and Becerra Lead California Governor Primary

With more than half of ballots counted, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra are leading California's crowded gubernatorial primary—setting up what could be the state's most closely watched November general election in two decades.

Early Returns Show a Tight Race at the Top

With a little more than half of the vote counted, Hilton opened a narrow lead over Becerra, at roughly 27% to 25%, with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place at around 20%. Under California's top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes—regardless of party—advance to the November general election, meaning the current standings, if they hold, would produce a Hilton-Becerra matchup in the fall.

The gap between Hilton and Becerra is narrow enough that the order of finish among the top two could still shift. What appears settled, for now, is that Steyer's roughly $213 million self-funded campaign was not enough to push him into the top two. Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message.

The chart below shows the early vote distribution across the leading candidates, based on returns with more than half of ballots counted.

Who the Candidates Are and What Drove Their Campaigns

Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control, focusing on housing costs, homelessness, and state affordability. He is a former Fox News host endorsed by Donald Trump, and previously served as an adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron.

Becerra, a former health secretary and California attorney general, has emerged as one of the leading candidates in a crowded field of Democrats. Kimberly L. Nalder, director of the Project for an Informed Electorate at Sacramento State University, said Becerra's strong performance suggested many voters may be looking for continuity rather than a sharp change in direction after the Newsom years.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary. Swalwell's departure in April following a scandal effectively consolidated establishment Democratic support around Becerra and helped prevent a scenario—feared by party strategists—where no Democrat advanced to November.

Republicans have not won a California statewide race since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. Hilton said, "Change is coming to California and it's long overdue. We're not there yet, but it's looking good."

How the Count Unfolds From Here

As millions of ballots continue to be counted, the primary is already offering an early glimpse into the issues and candidates that could dominate California politics for the rest of the year. California relies heavily on mail-in voting, and election officials have cautioned that a definitive call on the final standings could take several days as counties process those ballots.

Although millions of ballots for the governor candidates have yet to be counted, California voters appear to be setting up a November showdown between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. The winner of the midterm election in November will replace Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking a third term.

The timeline below marks the key events that shaped the field from its formation to primary night.

Should Hilton and Becerra hold their positions once all ballots are counted, November would mark only the second time since 2006 that a Republican has had a credible shot at a California statewide office—and the first since Schwarzenegger to reach a general election with consolidating Democratic opposition rather than a fractured field.